With the space industry rapidly gaining momentum, new research from Te Whare W膩nanga o Waitaha | University of 91视频污污 (UC) highlights the importance of managing this growth sustainably to protect our planet鈥檚 wellbeing.
UC supports the advancement of aerospace through research, partnerships, and talent development 鈥 and recognises the importance of doing so in ways that protect future generations. This research adds to a growing body of knowledge guiding the sector鈥檚 sustainable development.
The ozone layer protects life on Earth from harmful solar ultraviolet (UV) rays and a hole discovered in the 1980s, caused by human-originated pollutants, is slowly healing thanks to global action generated by the . But emissions from rocket launches, particularly certain chemicals and particulates, could pose a new challenge.
The UC-led study, published in , modelled atmospheric impacts from projected rocket launch rates. While 2019 saw 102 launches, by 2024 that increased to 258 worldwide, with that number expected to be exceeded in 2025. At multiple sites worldwide, the launch industry expects expansive future growth.
The findings show that with around 2,000 launches per year 鈥 nearly ten times current levels 鈥 the ozone layer could thin by up to 3%, with the most significant losses over Antarctica.
鈥淔ortunately, the ozone losses are small,鈥 said Associate Professor Laura Revell, one of the study鈥檚 lead authors. 鈥淏ut they are significant in the context of global ozone recovery.鈥
Importantly, the researchers also found no significant ozone loss under a more modest scenario of 900 launches per year 鈥 showing that informed decision-making can make a difference.
The study highlights that rocket fuel choices matter: chlorine-based fuels and black carbon particulates have the greatest impact on the atmosphere.
鈥淚t鈥檚 entirely possible to create a launch industry future where we avoid harmful effects,鈥 said co-lead author Dr Michele Bannister. 鈥淚t鈥檒l take keen effort and enthusiasm from industry and regulators, working together with scientists - but this needs to start now, not after the damage is done.鈥
The study involved five UC researchers from the Faculties of Science and 91视频污污ing (Laura Revell, Michele Bannister, Dave Frame, John Cater, former MSc student Tyler Brown), alongside collaborators in Switzerland, Spain, and the US. It was supported by Rutherford Discovery Fellowships from Te Ap膩rangi | Royal Society of New Zealand.
